Note: This Situation Report acts as an update to KSG's 3 September, 2024 in-depth assessment of the unrest in Venezuela.
Key Takeaways:
Edmundo González Uturri, widely seen as the rightful winner of the July 2024 presidential election, has fled to Spain after the Venezuelan government issued an arrest warrant. This is part of a larger government crackdown on opposition members.
Despite González’s exile, opposition leader María Corina Machado remains in Venezuela and continues to push for the opposition’s goal of González being sworn in as president in January 2025.
Latin American condemnation of President Maduro’s government, backed by the US, has led to diplomatic isolation for Venezuela.
The situation is expected to worsen with further authoritarian actions by Maduro, potentially leading to deeper regional isolation, more US sanctions, and an increase in global oil price volatility. Venezuela’s reliance on Russia and China is likely to deepen, while domestic instability could exacerbate the migrant crisis in Latin America.
This image is sourced from About Resorts. If there are any copyright concerns, please contact us to address them.
Following KSG’s Assessment of the Venezuelan Political Crisis and its Effects, Edmundo González Uturri, the opposition candidate widely believed to be the rightful winner of the 28th July presidential elections, has gone into exile in Spain. González’s arrival in Madrid on 7th September 2024, comes after the Venezuelan public prosecutor issued an arrest warrant for the opposition candidate on 2nd September 2024.
The call for González’s arrest and his subsequent exile demonstrates Maduro's continued clamp down on members of the opposition. Since 28th July, nearly two thousand Venezuelans have been arrested, and the country has been subject to widespread censorship and threats of violence.
Despite González leaving the country, the leader of the opposition, María Corina Machado, reaffirmed on X (formerly Twitter) that she will remain in the country, stating that both herself and González will continue to fight against the regime. Machado further reasserted the opposition’s ambitions that González will be sworn in as president on 10th January 2025.
Regional Responses and Implications
Maduro’s clamp down on opposition to his regime has led to a broader trend of Venezuelan diplomatic isolation in Latin America. In response to the exile, several Latin American governments and foreign ministries have condemned Venezuela’s actions. Colombia, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Chile, and Paraguay have all released public statements indicating a universal condemnation of Maduro’s continued governance.
The regional tensions resulting from Maduro’s hard-line approach are also highlighted through Venezuela’s attempt to end Brazil’s stewardship of the Argentine embassy in Caracas, which shelters six anti-government opponents. The embassy originally came under Brazilian control following Argentina's diplomatic fallout with Venezuela after rejecting the 28th July election results. Brazil, however, insists on maintaining control of the embassy and defending Argentine interests, warning that any forced entry would violate international law under the Vienna Convention.
The US Position
A unified Latin American approach towards Venezuela has been encouraged by the US, as seen in Washington’s push for OAS unity on condemning the results of the 28th July elections. In a joint press conference with the President of the Dominican Republic, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken highlighted the US’ work with regional organisations, as well as Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico to ‘see Venezuela return clearly to a democratic track’ and outline how ‘the future in Venezuela also affects them’.
In line with their condemnation of Maduro and in response to González’s exile, the US Department of State released a statement attributing the actions to ‘antidemocratic measures’ and condemning Maduro’s ‘use of repression and intimidation to cling to power by brute force’.
International Positions
Spain’s role in welcoming González, aligns with the European Union’s position towards Maduro and support of the Venezuelan opposition. In reaction to the news, High Representative Josep Borrell, asserted that Gonzelez appeared to be the winner of the elections, and until 5th September, the opposition candidate was ‘given hospitality’ at the Netherlands residence in Caracas.
Whilst neither Russia nor China have commented on González’s exile, both nations have demonstrated continuity in terms of business and political relations with Venezuela since KSG’s previous assessment.
Forward Look:
Given the evolved situation since KSG's last assessment, the following forward looking assessments have been made:
KSG assesses that Machado’s continued presence in Venezuela, as well as strong international and regional support for the opposition movement, means that the opposition will be able to sustain its campaigning for democracy in Venezuela for the rest of 2024.
González’s exile severely decreases the likelihood of a deal with the opposition being reached. It is highly probable that this will lead to further authoritarian and non-democratic actions from the Maduro administration, consolidating Venezuela’s regional diplomatic isolation.
While there have currently been no changes to US economic sanctions in Venezuela, increasing authoritarianism is likely to encourage Washington to impose new sanctions on the Maduro regime. This will likely heavily affect global oil prices and the gold industry in Venezuela. To mitigate risks associated with Venezuelan oil, companies should consider diversifying their supply sources and investing in alternative energy projects. Companies should engage with key stakeholders, including governments and international organisations, to influence the diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the Venezuelan crisis and maintaining global energy security resilience.
If regional isolation worsens, or US sanctions are increased (as outlined in KSG’s last assessment), Venezuela will deepen their current reliance on support from Russia and China, likely stretching both nations’ resources in the Ukrainian War and South China Sea. Regional isolation is also likely to see Venezuela continue and escalate military rhetoric and action surrounding Guyana. In essence, KSG believes that stricter treatment by Washington pushes Venezuela towards a reliant relationship with China and Russia.
Continued domestic instability is highly likely to worsen the ongoing migrant crisis in Latin America. As outlined in the KSG September 2024 analysis, this will not only cause an exodus of skilled workers and a deterioration in Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.'s (PDVSA) operations, but also exacerbate migration issues and policies throughout the region. This is likely to especially affect Colombia’s border region, migration in the Darien Gap, and Central America, potentially causing an influx of migrants to Mexico, and across the US border.