Key takeaways:
• The Reciprocal Access Agreement between Japan and the Philippines further illustrates ongoing tensions in the South China Sea and countries’ attempts to counter China’s presence.
• KSG does not anticipate this trend of confrontation with China to subside; furthermore, KSG does not expect these actions to serve as a sufficient deterrent to ongoing low-level disputes between these states and China.
On Monday, 8 July, Japan and the Philippines signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement, which is a “legal framework for facilitating mutually beneficial defense cooperation” between the Philippines and Japan. The agreement is significant as it creates procedures under which Japanese and Filipino troops can enter each other’s territory to conduct joint training operations. This is the first such pact which Japan has signed with a Southeast Asian state.
The agreement does not explicitly state it is designed to counter China. However, Japan’s Foreign Minister, Yoko Kamikawa, stated that these strengthening ties were not directed at a particular country, but China’s “‘aggressive moves’” against Japanese and Philippine territory (the Senkaku Islands, and Second Thomas Shoal respectively) provided “‘a motivating cause’”.
This agreement is yet further proof of growing tensions between China and other East Asian states over territorial claims. Furthermore, Japan and the Philippines are both US allies. Thus, this agreement also illustrates the creation of a tight-knit security network to confront China, which does not directly rely on the US – Although the US remains essential.
Looking forward:
KSG believes it is very likely this trend of forming coalitions and creating agreements to counter China will continue. This trend will be most acutely demonstrated in countries like Japan and the Philippines, where there is direct conflict over disputed territory between them and China.
KSG assesses that the signing of this pact will not act as a sufficient deterrent to stop low-level incidents and provocations between these states and China which have occurred recently. For instance, a Chinese buoy deployed on Japan’s Pacific coast, which was discovered earlier this month.
The agreement provides further signalling to the defence industry that there will be ample opportunity for sales in South East Asia.
As US Allies in the region begin to take further responsibility for security, KSG assesses that over the next decade, pressure on US presence in the South China Sea could be slackened to a degree. In tandem with a push in Europe for greater autonomy over security vis-à-vis Russia, and the growing role of Saudi Arabia in Middle East security – the strain on US theatre simultaneity (or ‘trying to be everywhere’) that many analysts fear could be reduced.
How this agreement will influence China’s decision calculus is difficult to assess, particularly vis-à-vis an invasion of Taiwan. Strengthened security ties and alliances likely dissuade Chinese aggression, given a perception in Beijing that success will be hampered by adverse actors. On the other hand, China may start to see a closing window of opportunity to secure its ambitions in the region, as a string of nations’ co-ordination and ability to constrict and contain China looks set to only strengthen.